972.355.3507
David Eudy

Articles Tagged "Economy"

My Blog Home

Subscribe and receive email notifications of new blog posts.




rss logo RSS Feed
Allen TX | 8 Posts
Buying a House | 7 Posts
Coming Soon! | 2 Posts
Coppell, TX | 1 Posts
Covid | 1 Posts
Covid-19 Update | 2 Posts
Dallas TX | 15 Posts
DFW | 5 Posts
DFW Real Estate | 30 Posts
Economy | 42 Posts
Exurb Counties | 2 Posts
Financial News | 1 Posts
Forth Worth TX | 1 Posts
Frisco TX | 5 Posts
Home Appraisals | 1 Posts
Home Prices | 7 Posts
Home Sales | 4 Posts
Home Showings | 1 Posts
Homebuyers | 1 Posts
Homeowner Tips | 1 Posts
Homeownership | 5 Posts
Housing Starts | 5 Posts
iBuyers | 1 Posts
In The News | 4 Posts
Inflation | 1 Posts
Las Colinas TX | 1 Posts
New Build | 1 Posts
Plano, TX | 2 Posts
Relocation | 1 Posts
Renting | 1 Posts
School News | 3 Posts
Taxes | 4 Posts
The Economy | 4 Posts
Zillow | 1 Posts
Dallas | Fort Worth | Jobs | Home Sales | Coppell | Flower Mound | Real Estate | Frisco | Relocation | Moving | New Construction | New Building | Home Prices | Home Prices | New Contruction | Growth | Forclosure | fort worth | search for homes | Schools | Taxes | Dallas-Ft Worth | Growth | 55+ Retirement Communities | Frisco | Byron Nelson | New Construction | Jobs | Texas | Schools | Little Elm | Little Elm | Frisco | DART | Commuter Rail | Public Transportation | Argyle | Lantana | New Construction | Fort Worth | Real Estate | RE/MAX | Real Estate | Southlake | RE/MAX | Sales | Agents | Coppell | Carrollton | Plano | Frisco | Irving | Relocation | Dallas | Dallas-Fort Worth | Housing | Real Estate | Economy | buying a house | buying a home | home buying tips | Grapevine | Selling a house | Las Colinas | Valley Ranch | DFW neighborhoods | Southlake TX | Selling a Home | area information | Denton TX | homeowner tips | First-time Home Buyer | RE/MAX DFW Associates | purchase offer | Buying a condo | First-time Buyers | Millennial Buyers | Baby Boomers | Retirement Community | Kitchen Remodel | Increase Home Value | Local businesses | Financing a home | For sellers | Painting tips | Downsizing | Homeownership | For buyers | Anna TX | Melissa TX | Rockwall TX | The Market | Zillow | Renting | DFW Metroplex | Interest Rates | Covid | Pandemic | Omicron | Homeschool | Christian Schools | IBuyers | Investors | Showings | Listings | Homebuilding | inflation | Homebuilding Permits | Home Showings | Appraisals | Exurbs | Suburbs
February
6

When will it be a buyer's market?

Rates are rising, inventory remains historically low and prices are sky high. Is a buyer's market on the horizon? Even as forecasters predict an uptick in homes hitting the market early this year, the most homes under construction since before the Great Recession, and more buyers to be priced out due to already high prices and rising mortgage rates, economists told Inman they don't foresee a return to what has traditionally been known as a buyer's market any time soon.  Sellers remain in the driver's seat, and economists told Inman the country still has a long way to go to settle into potentially new ways of thinking about just what is a normal housing market in the modern age.  So while December 2021 saw more new homes hit the market than at any other time, the country is working its way through a supply backlog that is helping to keep sellers in control.  If you look at demographics, you can say that the current level of construction is pretty close to normal. But what that doesn't tell you is how much behind that total supply is.   "It's still going to take a really, really long time to make up for the last 15 years of a lack of supply coming in," said Nicole Bachaud, economist for Zillow.

  • Inman News, February 1, 2022
February
2

Five to Seven Interest Rate Hikes in 2022

In recent days, investment bank after investment bank has published revised forecasts, and they all predict the same thing: That the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at a quicker pace this year than anybody would have anticipated just a week ago.  The latest is from Goldman Sachs, which now sees five rate hikes this year, joining Deutsche Bank at that number. Bank of America thinks the central bank will be even more aggressive. It predicts seven 25-basis-point hikes this year, one for each of the remaining FOMC meetings. That would bring the federal funds rate to 1.75%-2% by year-end, essentially hiking up borrowing costs for Americans after years of rock-bottom lending rates.   At last week's meeting, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell gave a clear signal that the central bank will move to raise interest rates as often as needed to tame run-away inflation. "The striking thing about Chair Powell's press conference this week was that he in effect made a compelling case that the Fed should have already hiked rates in the second half of last year," said Ethan Harris, global economist at Bank of America, in noting tell-tale signs of a slowing economy, a turbulent labor market and rising prices. "The only thing missing from the narrative was: 'and so, we are behind the curve and are hiking today.'"

  • Fox Business, January 31, 2022
November
2

Counting Californians: Here's how many people, companies are moving to Texas from the Golden State

More than one of every 10 people moving to Texas during the 2020 pandemic year was from California. Florida, Colorado, Illinois and Louisiana rounded out the top five states exporting people to the Lone Star State.

INFUTOR AND TEXAS REAL ESTATE RESEARCH CENTER AT TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY

We already knew that many of the transplants to Texas hail from California. Now we know just how many.

More than one of every 10 people moving to Texas during the 2020 pandemic year was from the Golden State, according to a study released this week by the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University.

In addition, California ranked as the top "move-to-Texas state" in 19 of the last 20 years, said Luis Torres, research economist at the center.

The only exception was 2005 when Hurricane Katrina pushed waves of Louisiana residents into the Lone Star State. 

The share of Californians relocating to Texas has increased every year since 2011, Torres said.

Florida was the second-largest source of new Texans, with a 7.2% share — still less than half of the California influx. Rounding out the top five sources were Colorado, Illinois and Louisiana. International movers were not included in the study.

Another recent study quantifies the companies moving out of California, finding that for the first six months of 2021, the number of companies relocating their headquarters out of the state is running at twice the rate for 2020.

Some 265 companies moved their headquarters to other states from Jan. 1, 2018 through June 30, 2021, based on the date of the announcement or date of documentation with the state, whichever came first, according to a study by McKinney-based Spectrum Location Services and Stanford University's Hoover Institution.

According to the paper by Joseph Vranich and Lee Ohanian:

"The losses are accelerating in that such relocations in the first half of 2021, which total 74, exceed that for all of 2020. Every month in 2021, twice as many companies are relocating their headquarters as in the prior year. The half-year monthly average for 2021 also significantly exceeds the monthly averages for 2018 and 2019."

For former California firms, Texas tops the popularity list, attracting 113 of the 265 companies, followed by Arizona and Nevada, according to Vranich and Ohanian's research.

North Texas landed 41 of the 113 companies, the Austin area won 57, the Houston area claimed nine and the San Antonio area lured six.

Shifting back to the migration of people, the majority of newcomers to Texas were from Los Angeles County, making up 3.1% of the total migration, according to the Texas Real Estate Research Center's findings.

"This is not surprising since Los Angeles County is the most populated in California," Torres said. "Four other Southern Californian counties — San Diego, Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino — made up the top 10 counties with residents moving to Texas."

"Contrary to popular belief, the majority of people moving from California are coming from the southern part of the state and not from Silicon Valley, which is farther north," Torres added.

Other U.S. counties in the top 10 sources of new Texans were Maricopa (Arizona), Cook (Illinois), Clark (Nevada), El Paso (Colorado), and King (Washington).

The influx of Californians in Dallas-Fort Worth has repercussions across a wide range of industries, including residential real estate, said Sharon Brown, general manager for DFW for Opendoor.

"California buyers are still coming in," Brown said. "They're still displacing folks who are moving out to the suburbs, getting bigger and better homes for their money."

  • Dallas Business Journal, October 28, 2021
September
16

Is a Home Foreclosure Tsunami Ahead for Dallas-Fort Worth

Major Economists do not see a big wave of foreclosures

Millions of homeowners have been sheltered from foreclosures since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.  But with mortgage forbearance programs and foreclosure moratoriums winding down, is there going to be a surge in home foreclosures?  While some investors are hoping to see a rise in problem properties, top real estate market economists don't anticipate a huge number of forced home sales by lenders.  "We don't think we are going to see a tsunami of foreclosures occurring," said Dr. James Gaines, the longtime economist with the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University. "I don't think we will start seeing anything until the first half of next year.  "It's a relatively small number of homes still getting mortgage forbearance.

 

At the end of August, only about 3% U.S. home loans were in forbearance plans, according to the latest estimate from the Mortgage Bankers Association of America. That adds up to about 1.6 million homeowners.  The share of home mortgages in payment forbearance is less than half what it was a year ago.  Home foreclosures have been almost nonexistent in the last year, with most lenders holding back from forcing property sales.  Any rise in home foreclosures won't compare with previous down cycles, Gaines said.  "There will be nothing on the scale we saw back in 2008 and 2009," he said. "We don't see it happening — particularly in Texas."  Because of big increases in home values in D-FW and other Texas markets in the last few years, most homeowners have large amounts of equity in their houses.

Dallas Morning News, September 10, 2021

July
2

What Are Experts Saying About the Rest of 2020?

What Are Experts Saying About the Rest of 2020? | MyKCM

One of the biggest questions on everyone's minds these days is: What's going to happen to the housing market in the second half of the year? Based on recent data on the economy, unemployment, real estate, and more, many economists are revising their forecasts for the remainder of 2020 – and the outlook is extremely encouraging. Here's a look at what some experts have to say about key areas that will power the industry and the economy forward this year.

Mortgage Purchase Originations: Joel Kan, Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry ForecastingMortgage Bankers Association

"The recovery in housing is happening faster than expected. We anticipated a drop off in Q3. But, we don't think that's the case anymore. We revised our Q3 numbers higher. Before, we predicted a 2 percent decline in purchase originations in 2020, now we think there will be 2 percent growth this year."

Home Sales: Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist, National Association of Realtors

"Sales completed in May reflect contract signings in March and April – during the strictest times of the pandemic lock down and hence the cyclical low point…Home sales will surely rise in the upcoming months with the economy reopening, and could even surpass one-year-ago figures in the second half of the year."

Inventory: George Ratiu, Senior Economist, realtor.com

"We can project that the next few months will see a slow-yet-steady improvement in new inventory…we projected a stepped improvement for the May through August months, followed by a return to historical trend for the September through December time frame."

Mortgage Rates: Freddie Mac

"Going forward, we forecast the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage to remain low, falling to a yearly average of 3.4% in 2020 and 3.2% in 2021."

New Construction: Doug Duncan, Chief Economist, Fannie Mae

"The weaker-than-expected single-family starts number may be a matter of timing, as single-family permits jumped by a stronger 11.9 percent. In addition, the number of authorized single-family units not yet started rose 5.4 percent to the second-highest level since 2008. This suggests that a significant acceleration in new construction will likely occur."

Bottom Line

The experts are optimistic about the second half of the year. If you paused your 2020 real estate plans this spring, connect with a RE/MAX DFW Associates agent today to determine how you can re-engage in the process.

 

-Keeping Current Matters - July 2020

April
9

Real Estate Will Boom Once the Threat is Over

The minute that people are legally allowed to take a physical tour, the market is going to boom. It's like when the new iPhone comes out. We want and expect lines out the door, just no tents, please.   People will be lined up at the doors of those homes they have obsessed over for months.  In the meantime, real estate professionals are utilizing virtual tours to keep buyers excited, and it is working, and relationships are getting back to the core — the heart.  We are entering what is usually the busiest season of real estate, that usually lasts through the end of the summer. I am confident that the busy season will last through the fall, and possibly through the winter.  Momentum is building, so there is no need to fear putting your home on the market.  Now is our chance to build and maintain confidence in the real estate market, because as soon as our world begins to shift back into normalcy, the market will be at its height.

  • Fox Business, April 5, 2020
March
11

Texas, All by Itself, is the 10th Largest Economy in the Entire World

Here are 8 Mind Blowing Facts about the Texas Economy

              1. Texas produces 40% of America's total Oil. That's a ton.
              2. While the Oil & Gas industry is huge, Texas is also the largest producer of wind power in America.
              3. The economic output of the Texas economy was $1.7 Trillion in 2017, placing us ahead of the entire countries of Canada and South Korea
              4. According to Business Insider, Texas produces $13 billion worth of wine every year. 
              5. The majority of Texas' exports go to other countries: $11.5 billion goes to China, $25.5 billion goes to Canada, and $92.4 billion goes to Mexico.  
              6. Business Insider also reported that there are 28 times the amount of businesses operating in Texas than there are in Wyoming.
              7. Texas also makes up 10% of total manufacturing in America.
              8. There are over 1 Million women-owned businesses in the Lone Star State.
              • Texas Memes, March 6, 2020
October
18

Forecasters – What to Expect Over Next 12 Months

Paige Shipp, regional director with housing analyst MetroStudy Inc. fears home sales might slow next year in the ramp up to presidential and congressional elections.  "We typically have much slower selling seasons right before an election," she said. "After that happens, the flood gates open and people come out. It's not a matter of who wins."   Worries about a recession may also impact the home market.  "We spent the better part of the last decade still looking over our shoulder," said George Ratiu, senior economist with Realtor.com.  "The last recession was so bad that we are still carrying some of the scars from that."   However, Dr. James Gaines, chief economist with the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University states that Texas economy is still expanding.  "And we are extremely unlikely to be in a recession by the end of this calendar year," he said. "We are probably pretty safe through the first six months of next year."

  • Dallas Morning News, October 14, 2019

 

October
17

Too Few Moderate Homes; Too Many Upper-End Homes

The number of homes listed for sale with North Texas real estate agents has risen by about 15% this year. But they aren't in the price range most buyers want.  "The inventory is increasing at the upper end — $750,000 and above," Dr. James Gaines, chief economist with the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University said. "If you have a well-located $300,000 house, you can sell it tomorrow. We are seeing evidence of price fatigue in the market."  D-FW home prices are up only about 3% so far in 2019 — nothing like the double-digit percentage home price gains of a couple of years ago.  "The recent spike in mortgage rates did expose how price sensitive the market is," said Paige Shipp, regional director with housing analyst MetroStudy Inc. "Things are not quite as rosy as they seem in terms of what people can afford."  Many home sellers haven't gotten the message, she said. "They want to list their house for more than their neighbors sold for and sell it overnight."  D-FW has an undersupply of homes priced below $250.000.

  • Dallas Morning News, October 14, 2019
September
24

DFW has half of the top 10 best U.S. home markets, including Frisco, Denton and McKinney

Frisco, Denton, McKinney, Carrollton and Allen were ranked among the best U.S. real estate markets by WalletHub.

Half of the country's 10 best real estate markets have something in common — they're all North Texas communities.  That's what researchers who prepared the 2019 Best Real Estate Markets report for personal finance website WalletHub found when they did their  annual survey.  Frisco, Denton, McKinney, Carrollton and Allen were all in the top 10 ranking for the nation's hottest home markets.  Denton came in at fifth place, and McKinney and Carrollton were number six and seven on the list.  Allen was number nine.

 

 

 

Wallet Hub, September 9, 2019

 

May
7

U.S. Creates 263,000 Jobs in April, Unemployment Falls to 3.6%

The economy generated a stronger than expected 263,000 new jobs in April, helping to drive down the unemployment rate to a 49-year low of 3.6%. The increase in new jobs easily topped the 217,000 MarketWatch forecast. The jobless rate slid from 3.8% in March to hit the lowest level since December 1969. The average wage paid to American workers rose 6 cents, or 0.2%, to $27.77 an hour. The 12-month rate of hourly wage gains was unchanged at 3.2%. Hours worked each week fell 0.1 hour in April to 34.4. The government revised the increase in new jobs in March to 189,000 from a preliminary 196,000. February's gain was raised to 56,000 from 33,000.

  • Market Watch, May 3, 2019
April
27

Boom: Hispanics Lead Housing, Income Surge, Poverty at Record Low

Hispanic Population Growth By 2060Latinos are finding their economic legs under the Trump administration, leading the surge in home ownership and income growth and record low poverty rates, according to two comprehensive new surveys.  While they remain far behind whites in income, they have seen their third consecutive year of income growth and have a higher workplace participation rate, according to the National Association of Hispanic Real Estate Professionals and the Hispanic Wealth Project. 

 

In two studies just released, the groups also provided revealing details about Latinos and their growth in America. For example, by 2060, nearly one of every three in the U.S. will identify as Latino.  The reports detailed Hispanic housing and economic trends and found most signs rapidly improving.  What's more, the group's goal of nudging overall Hispanic income up is showing signs of success. The group said that within the next five years, Hispanic median income will triple.Hispanic Homeownership rate

 

The group listed the positive trends in its income report:

  • For the fourth consecutive year, Hispanics increased their rate of home ownership, reaching a rate of 47.1%. In 2018, Latinos added 362,000 homeowners which is the highest number of owner households added for Latinos since 2005.
  • In 2017, Hispanics saw the third consecutive year of income growth and the highest of any demographic.
  • Between 2016 and 2017, Hispanics increased their real median income by 3.7%. Latino families making an annual income over $200,000 increased from 2.1% in 2011 to 3.8% in 2017, and the percentage of Latino millionaires more than doubled between 2013 and 2016.
  • Poverty rates reached a historic low for Latinos. Simultaneous to median income growth, Hispanics have lowered their poverty rate for three consecutive years. With a poverty rate of 18.3% in 2017, Hispanics reached their lowest level since poverty estimates for Hispanics were first published by the U.S. Census Bureau in 1972.

Hispanic Income Growth

  • Latinos have significantly higher labor force participation rates. Hispanics are employed at a rate of 66.1%, compared to 62.9% of the general population. The Hispanic unemployment rate was reduced by over 7 percentage points between 2009 and 2018, from 12.1% to 4.7%, respectively.
  • Latinos continue to drive small business growth. Between 2014 and 2016, the number of Latino-owned employer firms increased by 13.1%, accounting for 23.8% of the net growth of all employer firms during that period.
  • Participation in retirement accounts for Latinos is increasing. Between 2013 and 2016, Hispanics increased their rate of retirement account ownership from 25.1% to 29.7%, and the value of their retirement accounts increased by roughly 40.4%.
  • Washington Examiner, April 23, 2019
March
31

Dallas Home Price Hikes Are Turning Buyers Into Renters

 

Should you buy or rent?

Dallas is one of the U.S. metro areas where rising home prices have hurt homeownership the most. Dallas, Denver and Houston were identified as the markets where there is the most downward pressure on homeownership, according to a new report by Florida Atlantic University and Florida International University faculty. The study ranked areas where the markets have tilted in favor of renting over buying homes. Researchers traced housing conditions in 23 markets for the report. Dallas was the most unfavorable for homeownership among the cities surveyed. "Of the metros in our index, Dallas is the highest and exhibiting the greatest downward pressure on the demand for homeownership," said Ken Johnson, real estate economist in FAU's College of Business. "The extraordinary appreciation in the area is a major driver of this score."  Dallas' housing market has taken off since the Great Recession, with soaring prices.

  • Dallas Morning News, March 20, 2019
March
29

Dallas and Los Angeles – The Top Markets for Investors

 Dallas and Los Angeles – The Top Markets for Investors

Dallas-Fort Worth is again near the top of a shopping list for commercial property investors — behind only Los Angeles in a new survey. For the third year in a row, commercial real estate firm CBRE ranked D-FW second nationally in its survey of property investors. Houston also made the top 10. Investors said industrial and warehouse buildings and apartments were their most targeted properties for 2019. "We are seeing unprecedented investor interest for industrial and logistics properties in Dallas-Fort Worth coming not only from U.S. investors but also global capital from Asia, primarily Singapore, Europe and the Middle East," Randy Baird, CBRE executive vice president of Industrial & Logistics, said in the report. "D-FW is capturing the interest of all forms of capital because we are at a central point in the U.S. supply chain, we have a pro-business environment with a low cost of doing business, and we have nation-leading population growth.

  • Dallas Morning News, March 21, 2019

 

 

March
28

Fed Sees No Rate Hike

 

Fed Sees No Rate Hike

The U.S. federal reserve on Wednesday brought its three-year drive to tighten monetary policy to an abrupt end, abandoning projections for any interest rate hikes this year amid signs of an economic slowdown, and saying it would halt the steady decline of its balance sheet in September. In terms of interest rates, the new Fed projections knocked the number of hikes expected this year to zero from the two forecast in December. This outlook is now also in line with President Donald Trump's criticism of Fed rate hikes endangering the recovery.

  • Reuters, March 21, 2019
March
27

Home Prices Fell in Dallas County in February

Home Prices Fell in Dallas CountyThe latest North Texas housing market numbers are not very encouraging, to say the least. Home sales were down in many Dallas-Fort Worth neighborhoods in February, and median home sales prices dropped for the first time since 2008-2009 in both Dallas and Rockwall counties.  Dallas County home sales prices fell 2.5 percent in February from a year ago, according to the latest figures from the MetroTex Association of Realtors. Median sales prices slid 4.5 percent in Rockwall County.  Collin and Denton counties eked out tiny year-over-year home price gains last month — less that 1 percent ahead of February 2018.  The only solid home price gain in the region came in Tarrant County, where houses are still relatively affordable.  Lower and moderate-priced house sales are still strong while purchases of expensive properties have lagged.

  • Dallas Morning News, March 22, 2019

 

March
11

States Where Americans Are Paying the Most/Least Taxes

Texas Ranks 45th on Taxation

Taxes are one of the few certainties in life — but they do not have to be a great burden. From the checkout counter to the 1040 form due every April, what Americans end up paying in taxes depends largely on where they live.  While all Americans are generally subject to the same federal tax code, each of the 50 states has broad authority to levy its own sales, income, and property taxes — or not.

With data from tax policy advocacy group Tax Foundation, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed the total tax burden as a share of income on a per capita basis to identify the states with the lowest and highest tax burden. Federal taxes are not included in the calculation.  While every state government relies on taxes to operate, no two state tax structures are exactly the same. For example, four states do not charge a sales tax and seven states do not levy personal income taxes. In stark contrast, 13 states derive the largest share of their annual tax revenue from sales taxes and nine from personal income taxes.

 

THE SIX HIGHEST TAXED STATES

  1. New York
  2. Connecticut
  3. New Jersey
  4. California
  5. Illinois
  6. Wisconsin

 

THE FIVE LOWEST TAXED STATES

 

  1. Texas

           * Taxes paid as percent of income: 7.6%

             * Income per capita: $47,362 (24th lowest)

             * State Income Tax Collections: -0-  (tied for lowest)

             * Property tax collections per capita: $1,731 (13th highest)

            * General sales tax collections per capita: $1,151 (5th highest)

  1. Louisiana
  2. Tennessee
  3. Wyoming
  4. South Dakota
  5. Alaska

- 24/7 Wall Street, March 2019

February
27

2019: New Home Sales Up 2%, Preowned Sales Down 2-4% Nationwide

U.S. Home Starts

Homebuilders are starting off 2019 with hopes of another increase in U.S. sales, especially newly built houses. But the building industry also sees an upcoming drop nationally in purchases of preowned homes because of rising affordability issues. "2019 looks like a year of solid, if not spectacular, growth," said Robert Dietz, chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders. "I think new-home sales will be up a tad and existing home sales down." The building industry forecasts a 2 percent rise in nationwide home starts in 2019, making it the best year since the Great Recession. That's the most positive sign in this year's outlook. "We actually have existing home sales declining year-over-year in 2019," Dietz said at the industry's annual meeting this week in Las Vegas. The drop in existing home sales is likely to be between 2 percent and 4 percent this year, according to the latest industry outlook. Preowned home sales in Dallas-Fort Worth fell slightly in 2018 after several years of increases. The decline continued into the new year. Higher mortgage rates and record prices are blamed for the slowdown.

  • Dallas Morning News, February 19, 2019

 

February
21

1800 Companies Have Left California

299 California companies have moved to Texas

299 California companies have moved to Texas

A group of Texas business leaders is traveling this week to the state's favorite place to lure away companies: California.The three-day trip to San Francisco is the latest effort by Texas to snag corporate offices, company headquarters and jobs from its West Coast rival. For years, California has been a favorite punching bag of Texas politicians who describe the Lone Star State as a refuge from California's burdensome regulations, hefty taxes and higher cost of living. The delegation is led by the Texas Economic Development Corporation.

Most of the 299 companies that have uprooted their California headquarters for Texas have landed in Dallas-Fort Worth in recent years. Toyota opened its new North American headquarters in Plano in 2017. McKesson, the nation's largest pharmaceutical distributor, moved its headquarters from San Francisco to Irving. Jamba Juice moved to Frisco. Jacobs Engineering moved to Dallas. Frozen food manufacturer Pegasus Foods moved to Rockwall. And Kubota Tractor moved to Grapevine.

  • Dallas Morning News, February 18, 2019

 

February
18

DFW Area Leads Nation in Job Growth in 2018; Expect Same in 2019

DFW area expects to remain in continued Job Growth for 2019Dallas-Fort Worth led the nation's metro areas in job growth in 2018, according to new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The DFW region added 16,400 jobs over the course of the year. New York and Houston followed closely behind, with 115,500 and 108,300 new jobs. Cheryl Abbo, regional economist for BLS's Southwest office, said D-FW's showing is "somewhat unusual" on a national scale, especially considering the size difference between it and New York. D-FW has about 7.4 million people, compared with New York's 8.6 million. A handful of large companies moved workers and expanded operations in the region in 2018, including Charles SchwabLiberty MutualCognizantand NTT Data. Two Fortune 500 companies — McKesson and Core-Mark— announced plans to move corporate headquarters from California to North Texas this year. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas recently forecast a slowing in this year's employment gains, with the region expected to add 113,671 jobs.

  • Dallas Morning News, January 30, 2019
January
30

Dallas, Texas Housing Market Forecast: One of the 'Hottest' in 2019?

 

Dallas, Texas Housing Market Forecast: One of the 'Hottest' in 2019?

 

By Brandon Cornett | January 18, 2019 | © HBI,

 

Recent forecasts for the real estate market in Dallas, Texas suggest that home prices in the area could rise faster than the national average in 2019. A separate forecast from Zillow ranked Dallas as one of the top ten "hottest" housing markets of 2019.

Bold Outlook for Dallas Housing Market in 2019

At the start of 2019, the median home value for Dallas, Texas was around $201,000. (The median for the broader DFW metro area was a bit higher.) That was a gain of more than 13% from a year earlier, according to data collected by Zillow.

Predictions from housing analysts point to continued home-price growth throughout 2019. In fact, the Dallas real estate market is expected to outperform the nation this year, in terms of annual home-value appreciation.  Given the current rate of appreciation, it would not be surprising to see the median house price in Dallas rise somewhere between 7% and 10% over the next year.

Zillow's research team recently predicted that the median value in Dallas would climb by 11.2% over the next 12 months. That was a much bolder forecast than the one they issued for the nation as a whole, which predicted 6.4% growth.

Housing Supply on the Rise

Inventory is another important trend that could shape the Dallas-area housing market in 2019. This year, home buyers across the metro area could have more properties to choose from.  At the end of 2018, the Dallas real estate market had more than a 4-month supply of homes for sale. That was a higher level of inventory than most metro areas across the U.S., and also higher than the national average during that same timeframe.

The key takeaway here is that housing inventory in Dallas (i.e., the number of homes listed for sale) increased during the latter part of 2018. As a result, buyers who enter the market this year should have more options when it comes to choosing a property.

Dallas Makes Zillow's "Hottest" List

In January, Zillow published a forecast that included what they felt would be the ten "hottest U.S. housing markets for 2019." Dallas was ranked at number seven on that list.  To create their "hot list," Zillow examined a number of factors for the nation's 50 largest metro areas. They then combined these variables to create a "hotness" score. They looked for metro areas with strong income growth, growing populations, and low unemployment — among other factors.

A Cooling Trend Could Prevent Affordability Issues

The Dallas real estate market is something of a paradox right now, as we move into 2019. Home prices in the area continue to rise faster than the national average. At the same, however, there is clearly a cooling trend taking place.

Paige Shipp, regional director at MetroStudy, recently told The Dallas Morning News: "Dallas-Fort Worth, the nation's top new home market, is slowing from a frenzied, overheated pace to a more stable, normalized market. Builders and developers are hard at work delivering product to meet the strong demand for affordable new homes."

Dallas currently leads the nation in terms of new-home construction, according to MetroStudy and other sources. There were nearly 35,000 housing starts in the DFW area during the third quarter of 2018, more than any other metro. (A "housing start" is the beginning of construction for a house.)

If inventory continues to grow in this market — as expected — it will likely lead to smaller home-price gains in the future. And that's probably a good thing. When house prices rise at a much faster pace than local wages and income, it can create affordability problems. So a cooling trend could actually be beneficial at this point.

Disclaimer: This article includes housing market predictions for the Dallas-Forth Worth metro area in 2019. They were provided by third parties not associated with the Home Buying Institute. Real estate forecasts are the equivalent of an educated and are far from certain.

 

January
23

Dallas Net Gained 127,000 Jobs in 2018

DFW Area Unemployment Rate Now 3.3%, Population 7.7 Million

Dallas Net Gained 127,000 Jobs in 2018

The Texas economy saw another month of low unemployment in December, a historic 43-year low that has continued since October, according to the Texas Workforce Commission. The DFW area unemployment rate dropped to 3.3%, with 127,000 net gain in jobs in the Dallas area for 2018. Texas has a net gain of 391,800 jobs, leading the nation in job gain.The demand is there for more job positions, but with the area tight labor market some jobs remain unfilled. 

  • Dallas Morning News, January 18, 2019
January
19

Dallas is in Top 10 Markets for 2019

Dallas is in Top 10 Markets for 2019

January
10

North Texas Home Prices Stumbled in December

Home Prices Stumbled in December

Local real estate agents sold 9 percent fewer homes in December than they did a year earlier — the fifth month in a row of year-over-year declines in home purchases.  Last month 7,786 homes were sold through the agents' multiple listing service, according to data from the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University and the North Texas Real Estate Information System. Last year's slight decline in home purchases in the area followed almost eight years of increases.  "It's still the second-best year ever," said Dr. James Gaines, chief economist with the Real Estate Center. "The whole state is reverting to a more normal market.  "We've been going really, really strong for years, and ultimately that slows down." Higher mortgage rates and record home prices in the Dallas-Fort Worth area have caused some prospective buyers to pull back from the market.

 

The number of homes for sale in the almost two dozen North Texas counties included in the report was 22 percent higher than a year earlier, with more than 21,000 preowned single-family homes listed for sale with real estate agents. On average it took 57 days to sell a property -- 8 percent longer than a year earlier. Even with the increase in inventory, there was only about a 2.4-month supply of houses listed for sale in the area at the end of December.

  • Dallas Morning News, January 8, 2019

 

January
9

Dallas Home Prices Up 5% in 2018

Home Prices have risen over 40% in the last five years

Dallas-area home price gains slightly outperformed the national average in 2018.Dallas home prices rose 5.3 percent from 2017 levels while the U.S. price increase was 5.1 percent, CoreLogic reports. CoreLogic is forecasting that nationwide home prices will grow less than 5 percent in the year ahead."The rise in mortgage rates has dampened buyer demand and slowed home-price growth," Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic, said in the report. "These higher rates and home prices have reduced buyer affordability," he said. "Home sellers are responding by lowering their asking price, which is reflected in the slowing growth of the CoreLogic Home Price Index." Along with Dallas' 5.3 percent year-over-year home price gain, CoreLogic found that prices were up 6.9 percent annually in the Fort Worth area and were 5.8 percent higher in San Antonio. Houston prices rose by just under 4 percent from a year ago. And prices in the Austin area were only 3.4 percent higher than in November 2017. 

Homeowners that CoreLogic surveyed attributed the growing home values as part of a strong national and local economy. "A strong economy helps homeowners feel confident about the value of their property," said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. "If recent declines in the stock market shake consumer confidence in the national economy, we may see homeowners' perception of home values change and a subsequent buyers' market emerge in 2019." Even with the declines in the rate of home appreciation, Dallas-Fort Worth home prices are at record levels and have risen more than 40 percent in the last five years.

  • Dallas Morning News, January 2, 2019
December
14

Dallas – One of Top 10 Cities With Market Change

It's no secret that Dallas' home market has a winter chill.Home sales have slowed, along with the rate of home price increase in North Texas.The market changes have put Dallas on Realtor.com's list of the 10 cities hit hardest by a housing slowdown."In the last few months, the real estate market has actually begun slowing down. including in some of the big cities that have been leading the go-go post-recession housing boom," according to a report on the website. "To be clear, prices aren't always dropping in these places, which are predominantly located on the West Coast."Mostly, they're decelerating, coming back down to earth."

Realtor.com based its rankings on a year-over-year rise in home price markdowns, increases in listings and changes in overall list prices."There's a rebalancing that needs to happen," Len Kiefer, deputy chief economist at Freddie Mac, told Realtor.com. "Prices have risen so high in some of these markets that it's very tough from an affordability perspective [for buyers]. ... It's not surprising to me that we're seeing a little bit of a leveling off."

Median home prices in North Texas are still up about 5 percent compared with 2017 levels. But that's a much smaller number than the double-digit annual gains seen in recent years. Home list prices in the Dallas area are down 1.4 percent from a year ago, and the number of listings has grown 15 percent year over year, according to Realtor.com

  • Dallas Morning News, December 11, 2018
December
13

Buyer Perceptions in this Changing Market

Buyer Perceptions in this Changing MarketThe declines in D-FW home sales and slower price appreciation are having a bigger impact on consumers' attitudes than their pocketbooks, analysts said.  "I am more concerned about the psychological impact of not-so-rosy housing news than I am about the actual underlying fundamentals of the housing market in the Dallas-Fort Worth market," said Daren Blomquist, top economist with Attom Data Solutions. "Certainly the data shows that the market has gotten somewhat overheated and is due for a slowdown, but that slowdown should just be a chance for the market to catch its breath rather than a trigger a panic attack.  "Jobs and people are still moving to the Dallas-Fort Worth area in large numbers, which ultimately should keep demand for housing solid," Blomquist said. "But the psychology of the market is more of a wild card and could result in a bigger slowdown or correction."

North Texas home sales would be higher if there were more moderately priced properties up for grabs, Paige Shipp of housing analyst Metrostudy Inc. said. "I believe the 1 percent decrease in sales this year is due to the lack of homes on the market below $200,000, not a lack of buyers," Shipp said. "D-FW has strong job and population growth, which equates to demand for homes.  "However, the increasing interest rates have exposed the fact that D-FW buyers cannot all afford homes priced above $400,000, she said.

  • Dallas Morning News, December 11, 2018
December
12

New Forecast: Dallas' Home Market Will Outperform U.S. in 2019 Even as Growth Slows

New Forecast: Dallas' Home Market Will Outperform U.S. in 2019 Even as Growth SlowsNot so fast with the gloomy forecasts for Dallas' housing economy. Yes, the local home market appears to be cooling after years of scorching hot sales. And some analysts have suggested there's a Dallas home price bubble getting ready to burst.  But a new forecast by Zillow says the market is likely to outperform the rest of the country in 2019 when it comes to home price gains and housing market health.

Zillow surveyed more than 100 real estate economists and investment experts for their take on the U.S. housing market and future home value growth.  According to Zillow's research, markets in Denver; Washington, D.C.; Atlanta; Dallas; Las Vegas; Phoenix; and San Jose, Calif., are likely to outperform the rest of America in 2019.  The economists on Zillow's panel said they expected U.S. home value to grow an average of 3.8 percent in 2019.

North Texas home prices are about 5 percent higher in 2018 after several years of double-digit annual appreciation. D-FW home prices were forecast to grow 4.3 percent next year in a recent Realtor.com report. Local analysts don't expect declines in home values in 2019. Instead, they say the rate of home price gains and overall home sales are likely to moderate.

  • Dallas Morning News, December 7, 2018
November
20

Why the Housing Market Is Slumping Despite a Booming Economy

Home prices are out of reach relative to incomes and mortgage rates. The big question for the economy is how the imbalance adjusts.

These should be happy times for the housing sector. The economy is booming, with more people working at higher pay, and with the sizable millennial generation reaching prime home buying age.  Instead, the housing market has gone soft, acting as a drag on the overall economy rather than as a force propelling it forward.

Sales of new single-family homes were down 22 percent in September from their recent high in November 2017, and existing home sales in September were down 10 percent. This tepid residential investment subtracted from G.D.P. growth in each of the first three quarters of 2018.

Home prices have not declined nationally, at least according to the most widely followed indexes. But their rate of increase has declined, and more and more home sellers are finding they must reduce asking prices to find a buyer.  Given how central housing is to the broader economy — it is the biggest driver of both wealth and indebtedness for most families, and its fluctuations have frequently been major factors in past booms and busts — this slump isn't something to be taken lightly for anyone hoping the good times will last.

So what's going on?

When you look closely at the data, it appears this paradox of a strong economy and a weak housing market is, at its core, an illustration of a fundamental rule in economics: If something can't go on forever, it won't.  Home prices in a given location are ultimately tethered to the incomes of the people who either live there or want to. But for much of the last six years, that relationship has come undone.  Nationally, personal income per capita has risen 25 percent since the end of 2011, while the S&P/Case-Shiller national home price index is up 48 percent (neither figure is adjusted for inflation).

The gap is even larger in the big coastal cities with high wages and booming job markets, but where legal and other barriers make it hard for builders to add to the supply of homes. In the San Francisco metro area, per capita personal income rose 40 percent from 2011 to 2017, while home prices rose 96 percent. Similar patterns are evident in Los Angeles, Seattle, Boston, New York and Washington.  In less high-flying markets, there was still a disconnect. In the Minneapolis area, for example, incomes rose 22 percent while home prices rose 46 percent.

Those rising home prices got help from years of very low mortgage rates, which put more expensive homes within reach for people at a given income level. Activity was also probably boosted by some bounce-back effect after the housing market crash of 2007-09, a result of pent-up demand for homes that were not bought while the market was collapsing.

Rates bottomed out in late 2012 at 3.31 percent for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. They have been moving upward in fits and starts since, including a full percentage point in the last year alone to nearly 5 percent — still low by historical standards, but high compared with the ultralow levels that had enabled these huge price gains.

There's no doubt that demographics are favorable for housing demand. The peak birth year for millennials was 1990; it's a group that is turning 28 this year and thus entering prime years for home buying. As it happens, 28 is exactly the median response in a Bankrate survey that asked adults for the ideal age to buy a home.

But that doesn't matter if prices are out of reach relative to incomes. Moreover, lending standards have remained more rigorous than they were during the last housing boom, so it has been harder for people to stretch to buy a home. The inability of people to buy homes they can't really afford is great news in terms of avoiding another crisis, but not so great for the near-term outlook for housing.

"Buyers can only stomach so many price increases until it gets unsustainable," said Daryl Fairweather, the chief economist at the online brokerage Redfin. "Prices reached a breaking point where buyers were fed up and started to consider other options," she said, including renting and moving away from the expensive coastal markets where prices are most out of whack with incomes. 

As Economics 101 teaches, price movements are the way that supply and demand match up with each other. But in the housing sector especially, that adjustment can take a while.  In contrast with the stock market, where relatively unemotional traders are buying and selling shares every day and the market stays liquid, home purchase and sales decisions can take months and are deeply emotional for the participants.

What seems to be happening is that sellers are trying to cling to the spring 2018 prices that their neighbors received, while there aren't enough buyers in late 2018 willing or able to pay those prices.  In a Fannie Mae survey of home purchase sentiment, the proportion of people who think it is a good time to buy a home has decreased significantly since the spring, to a net 21 percent from 29 percent. But so has the proportion who think it is a good time to sell, which has dropped to 35 percent from 45 percent.

You would expect, in a zero-sum transaction like a home sale, for those numbers to move in opposite directions. Instead, it seems that sellers are unhappily realizing that they aren't going to get what they thought their house was worth six months ago, and buyers still think homes are too expensive.  That helps explain why transaction volume, especially for new houses, has fallen substantially while prices haven't (at least yet). It's a standoff. And the outcome of the standoff will, in the aggregate, play a role in shaping the future of the economy.

There is precedent for this, and it isn't a happy one. In the last housing boom, new home sales peaked in July 2005, and home prices didn't start declining until May 2006. It didn't start to hurt the overall economy until December 2007, when the damage had spread through an overleveraged global financial system.

But that doesn't mean this episode has to end in tears. Home prices are not nearly as out of line with incomes as they were then; speculative activity hasn't been nearly as frothy; and consumer debt levels are considerably more measured.   "I think income growth will help us get out of this period," said Robert Dietz, the chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders. "We're probably looking at a period where existing home sales volume is flat to declining, and it now looks like 2017 was the peak year for transaction volume."

A strong (nonhousing) economy makes it more likely that this housing slump will end without a steep 2008-style downturn. So does the basic reality that young adults are forming families and need a place to house them.

But in the meantime, it could be a soft few months or even years of standoffs between buyers and sellers, with the big question of which comes first: sellers who settle for less after recognizing that the price they thought they would get is beyond the reach of buyers, or incomes that catch up with a housing market that got a little ahead of itself.

 

  • Neil Irwin, New York Times, November 15, 2018
November
7

Is Texas Turning Into California?

Is Texas Turning into California?

 

When economist James Gaines gave a talk recently about the economy and the real estate market, his biggest audience response came from an unexpected topic.  Gaines, chief economist at the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University, told hundreds of local real estate agents what to expect in the years ahead regarding the state's population growth and demographic changes.

 

"Do you know what Texas looks like in 30 years?" Gaines asked the audience.  "California," he offered as the whole ballroom of folks groaned and rolled their eyes.  Nothing gets a bunch of Texans more riled up than to tell them they are turning into California. 

 

"I have used that line a number of times and get the same reaction," Gaines said. "People are always asking where are we going and what will we look like.  "I'm serious about it," he said. "The problems, the issues, politically, socially, economically, land use, housing resources — go down and tick off the issues. We are going down the same path."

 

Gaines said the rapid growth of jobs, population and wealth that California has seen over the past few decades is similar to what Texas is now experiencing. That means the state faces the same opportunities and increasing challenges.  D-FW's population, now around 7.5 million, is expected to hit 10 million by 2030. 

Texas is already creating more jobs than California. And last year, the two fastest-growing population centers in the U.S. were in Texas: the D-FW metro area and Houston.

Still, even with the folks leaving the state, California has 10 million more residents than Texas. And median home prices there are more than twice what they are in the Lone Star State.  A house in Texas' most expensive metro area — Austin — that will cost you just over $300,000 will go for twice that in Los Angeles and more than $1.5 million in San Francisco.  With soaring home and apartment prices on the West Coast and a shortage of affordable labor, no wonder everyone, from recent college grads to Amazon's top brass, is looking east for greener pastures. And Texas is at the top of their shopping list.

  • Dallas Morning News, November 2, 2018

 

 

 

November
5

Dallas Area Home Prices Grew By Less Than 5%

Case Chart

Dallas-area home prices grew less than 5 percent in August from a year earlier, according to the latest nationwide comparison.  It was the first time in almost six years that Dallas-area home appreciation has been at such a low level in the closely-watched Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller Home Price Index.  "Following reports that home sales are flat to down, price gains are beginning to moderate," S&P's David M. Blitzer said in the report. "The seasonally adjusted monthly data show that 10 cities experienced declining prices.  Other housing data tell a similar story: prices and sales of new single family homes are weakening, housing starts are mixed and residential fixed investment is down in the last three quarters."

 

Home prices in North Texas have cooled in 2018 after years of double-digit percentage annual gains. Still, Dallas-area prices are about 45 percent higher than a decade ago, before the economic downturn and housing crash.  "There are no signs that the current weakness will become a repeat of the crisis," Blitzer said. "Without a collapse in housing finance like the one seen 12 years ago, a crash in home prices is unlikely." 

 

The slowdown in home price growth may be good news for potential buyers who have struggled to find homes they can afford.  "It's more welcome news for would-be homebuyers, who must be breathing a collective sigh of relief that home price growth finally has slowed," Skylar Olsen, Zillow's director of economic research, said in a statement. "Softening appreciation after the rapid growth of just a few months earlier is a sign that fierce competition is dying down.  Potential buyers who were intimidated during the heat of the market may find the breathing space now to make a calm, considered decision about whether to lock in a mortgage before rates rise further."

  • Dallas Morning News October 31, 2018

 

October
19

DFW Homes Sales Stumbled in 3rd Quarter

Texas Quarterly Report

Dallas Morning News, October 18, 2018

Dallas-Fort Worth was the only major Texas market that saw a decline in third quarter home sales. D-FW preowned homes sales fell 2.3 percent from third quarter 2017, according to a new report by the Texas Association of Realtors. Statewide sales were 4.4 percent higher than in the previous year. Among the big metro areas, the largest sales increase was in Houston were real estate agents sold 11.6 percent more houses than they did in third quarter 2017. 

"Our market remains extremely strong but is still slowly moving toward normalization," Dr. James Gaines, chief economist with the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University, said in the report. "Median home prices and home sales are up, but the rate of increase statewide is beginning to slow compared to prior years."

Even with the year-over-year sales decline, D-FW had the largest number of preowned property sales in the state with 27,660 properties changing hands, according to the Realtors association. The Houston-area was second with 24,028 home sales. Median home sales prices rose 4.4 percent in the third quarter from the previous year to $235,000. In D-FW, prices were up 3.9 percent to a median of $265,034.

Residential appreciation in North Texas has slowed this year after median home values grew by more than 40 percent during the last five years. D-FW had the largest inventory increase of any of the major metros - up 14.5 percent from third quarter 2017. "At the current rate that home sales and active listings are increasing, we are trending towards another record-breaking year in Texas real estate," Kaki Lybbert, chairman of the Texas Association of Realtors, said.

October
18

Dallas Expected to Have Only 2.7% Home Price Growth in 2019

The latest forecast from CoreLogic calls for only about 2.7 percent home price growth in D-FW in the next 12 months.  -	Dallas Morning News, October 15, 2018

The latest forecast from CoreLogic calls for only about 2.7 percent home price growth in D-FW in the next 12 months.
- Dallas Morning News, October 15, 2018

Don't look for Dallas-Fort Worth on the list of cities economists expect to have the biggest home price gains in the year ahead. Nationwide prices are expected to rise by less than 5 percent in the year ahead, according Veros, a risk management and valuation firm. "Our latest VeroForecast indicates that on average, for the top 100 most populated metro areas, we expect 4.5 percent appreciation over the next 12 months," Eric Fox, vice president of statistical and economic modeling at Veros, said in the report. "We are forecasting that the overwhelming number of metros across the nation, approximately 97 percent, will appreciate, with just three percent depreciating during this period."

"The days of easy 10 percent price gains in one year are over," Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, told real estate agents. For sure that is so in Dallas-Fort Worth. Median sales prices in North Texas were up 9 percent last year, and rose 10 percent in 2016 and 2015 and were 11 percent higher in 2014. Through the first nine months of 2018, median sales prices of houses sold by local real estate agents are just 5 percent greater than the same period last year.

A forecast for the next 12 months sees 2.1 percent home price growth in the D-FW area, according to CoreLogic. That's much less than their U.S. 1-year price forecast rise of 4.7 percent. After several years of double-digit percentage home appreciation in North Texas, the latest price forecasts may seem dismal. But a slowdown in home price gains is just what the D-FW area needs at this point in the cycle. The best way to prevent another housing bubble is to let a little air out of the market before things get too overvalued.

 

September
15

Texas Home Sales Are Slowing as Prices Are Rising

Texas Home Sales Update

Texas has been one of the fastest growing housing markets in the country in the last few years. The state has led the nation in homebuilding and Texas' major metros - Houston, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio, Austin - have had big increases in the number of preowned home sales. But the latest snapshot of the Lone Star State's hot housing market is a mixed bag. While statewide home sales rose almost 3 percent in the second quarter from 2017 levels, sales in the D-FW area slowed for the first time in years.  And sales barely rose in the Austin area, according to the latest data from the Texas Association of Realtors.

"The demand for housing remains at an all-time high, but statewide we're seeing a slower rate of increase in sales compared to previous quarters due to the lack of inventory of properties for sale," Dr. James Gaines, chief economist with the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University said. Rising prices and higher mortgage rates have also dampened buying in some neighborhoods. Even with the dip in sales, the D-FW led the state in second quarter home sales by real estate agents with 28,934 properties changing hands.

D-FW home sales were 0.8 percent lower than in second quarter 2017. Statewide median home sales prices rose by 4.4 percent in the period ending with June. D-FW had the biggest jump in the number of homes for sale in the second quarter of any major Texas metro area. The number of homes on the market in North Texas grew by 14 percent, according to the Realtors.

  • Dallas Morning News, September 13, 2018 (online)
July
24

Californians Continue Moving to Texas

Dallas-Fort Worth was one of the top destinations for domestic migrants from California in 2017, according to a recent study.  There were 1,051 moves from coastal California, the home of some of the country's toughest housing markets, to Dallas in the first quarter of 2017, according to Alexandra Lee, a housing analyst with the real estate listing and research site Trulia, which did the study.  Out of 19,132 moves out of the region during that time period, 5.5 percent went to D-FW.   Houston is also a popular destination for people fleeing the California coast — 3 percent of the migrants in the study came to Texas' most populous city, meaning that 8.5 percent of those in the study came to either Dallas-Fort Worth or Houston.   The Trulia report looked at census data for transplants from four coastal California hubs: San Francisco, San Jose, Los Angeles and San Diego. Homes in those markets listed for an average of $720,000 in March 2017, Trulia says, compared to $313,000 in Dallas and $250,000 nationally.   The home prices in these cities is clearly a major determinant in whether people leave California and to where they move, Lee said over email, but it's not the be-all and end-all.  Texas is a big destination for job-to-job flows, a U.S. Census Bureau-designed statistic that measures flows of employees from one company to another when they've been at each company longer than three quarters. The biggest source of these flows is California, which contributed 6,884 in the first quarter of 2016.

  • Dallas Morning News, June 28, 2018

 

Californians Continue Moving to Texas

June
20

Buyers Are Paying 19% More Than One Year Ago

Buyers Are Paying 19% More Than One Year Ago

Homebuyers are getting a double whammy. "Home prices are up and mortgage rates are up," said Frank Nothaft, chief economist with CoreLogic. Nationwide home prices are almost 7 percent higher than a year ago. And the average long-term mortgage cost has risen by seven tenths of a percentage point interest compared with this time in 2017, according to CoreLogic. "That translates into a 16 percent increase in the monthly principal and interest payments to buy the same house," Nothaft said. For the first-time homebuyer there is a 19 percent increase from one year ago. "Average wages around the country are up only 2.5 percent to 3 percent from a year ago. Each passing month as prices rise and mortgage rates rise, it's increasingly challenging for home buyers, especially entry-level homebuyers," he said. "The pinch it takes out of their monthly budget starts to affect more and more buyers across the country." Dallas-Fort Worth is one of the markets with record-high home costs. While overall median home prices in North Texas are up about 5 percent so far in 2018, prices for the most affordable houses — under $200,000 — are rising at almost twice that rate.  CoreLogic is forecasting further increases in home prices and interest rates in the year ahead.

  • Dallas Morning News, June 15, 2018
June
18

Dallas Unemployment at 3.6% - Among Lowest in Nation

Unemployment Rates

Dallas continues to add over 100,000 jobs annually and the unemployment rate has remained at 3.6 percent, a very low level not seen in the past 20 years.   While the outlook is for continued rapid growth in the region, it depends critically on a steady flow of workers into the state and on trade-friendly policies.  Already the fourth largest metro area, Dallas-Fort Worth is growing faster than the nation — about 2 percentage points faster so far this year. However, this outsized performance is only possible with robust labor force expansion. The D-FW labor force increased 3.1 percent over the past year, while the participation rate — the share of people working or seeking employment — was little changed. Thus, the bulk of workforce growth is due to migration.  Net migration from other U.S. states was responsible for 40 percent of D-FW's population increase in 2017, while arrivals from other countries accounted for 20 percent. In fact, since 2010, D-FW has had the highest population gains from total net migration among all U.S. metro areas.

  • Dallas Morning News, June 15, 2018
May
30

The Real Estate Slowdown is Real: Don't Panic as Buyers Bring Balance

by Seth Fowler

 

(This article appeared in Candy's Dirt.  It is specific to the Ft Worth side of the Metroplex, but the facts are the same for all of North Texas.)

 

Real Estate Slowdown

Some will agree, and some won't,  but data doesn't lie — we are heading into a real estate slowdown.

 

First of all…R-E-L-A-X.  No, we are not heading toward a recession.  No, the housing market isn't crumbling.  No, it's not time to sell your home, stock up on canned beans, ammo, and get off the grid.  But the real estate market is changing … dare we call it a slowdown?

How Can You Say It's a Slowdown?

How can I say this? We are in the midst of an historical real estate boom like we've never seen before and everything we hear and read says the market is hot, hotter, hottest!  Please hear me: the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex is still by far the absolute best place in the world to live, work, play, and own real estate.  The daily, weekly, monthly growth that is happening to this part of the state is still out of this world.

But the market is experiencing a slowdown.  Interest rates are rising .  Municipalities are getting more and more greedy with property taxes.  Home values are increasing at a rapid pace.  New home construction is increasingly expensive and not meeting demand.  Wages aren't increasing as quickly as prices and that's causing a slowdown in the real estate market.

 

In Part One we will look at those factors and how they combine to cause this slowdown.  In Part Two next week, we will discuss whether or not an actual slowdown in the real estate market is a good thing, a precursor to doom-and-gloom (again, R-E-L-A-X), and what it means for buyers and sellers in this brave new world.

Just The Facts Ma'am

According to the Fort Worth Housing Report distributed by the Greater Fort Worth Association of Realtors, the median sales price of homes is going up, up, and up.  Up 9.7 percent from February 2017 to 2018 at $214,000.  Up 9.3 percent from March 2017 to 2018 at $219,750.  Up 7.3 percent from April 2017 to 2018 at $220,000.  We see that the overall price continues to increase, but the percentage from year-to-year is falling a little bit.  Across the country home prices increased 8.7 percent over the past year according to a recent Zillow report.  Increases like this simply are not sustainable in the long run for a stable economy.  While sellers enjoy their large return on their investment, fewer and fewer buyers are able or willing to pay these steep increases.

Active Listings And Days on Market

From same reports active listings were up 3.4 percent from February 2017 to 2018 at 1,668 homes.  Up 6.4 percent from March 2017 to 2018 at 1,851. Up 17.1 percent from April 2017 to 2018 at 2,105.  The more listings the better right?  Well, yes and no is the answer.  Yes more listings on the market the better for buyers.  But that's only if they are good listings that are priced correctly.  Days on market has also increased.  Homes sat for one day longer in February 2018 than 2017 at 43 days.  Seven days longer in March 2018 than 2017 at 44 days.  Seven days longer in April 2018 than 2017 at 37 days.

No — not time to panic — but numbers don't lie.  Buyers are gaining some control.

Word on The Street

While considering this article over the past month or more, I have talked to many agents, lenders, and title company officers in the D/FW area and 100 percent of them have mentioned how it appears that the buyers are finally pushing back at the skyrocketing prices.  Sellers have been in control for a number of years when it comes to asking price.  Depending on the range, sellers have tended toward higher asking prices and buyers have very little recourse.  If a buyer wants a house then they'll meet asking price … or go higher.  As inventory increases (albeit slightly) we are seeing buyers be a little pickier and price conscious.  It's not as if buyers are offering 50 cents on the dollar, but more than ever in the past year we are seeing lower offers as homes sit longer on the market.  Of course there are variables like price range and location and condition of homes — I know that — so these stats might not apply for all homes universally.

In Summary

We have been living in the longest real estate boom in the history of ever.  It's not going away, it's just not booming like it was, and I contest that it will not boom like that again.  A slowdown is happening and will continue to happen.  While this might cause panic for some, it could also be just what our overall economy needs — balance.  Come back next week and see what else I have to say.  If you disagree with this article — or if you agree — hit me up, let me know, I'd love to hear YOUR perspective.

Well that's all from Tarrant County this week Dirty Readers.  Thanks for reading and following and sharing!  As always, if you have questions, comments or great ideas for a blog … hit me up!

Seth Fowler is a licensed Real Estate Sales Professional for Williams Trew Real Estate in Fort Worth, TX.  Statements and opinions are his and his alone.  Seth has been involved with the home sales and real estate industry in the Fort Worth area since 2004.  He and his family have lived in the area for over 15  years.  Seth also loves bowties!  You can reach Seth at: 817.980.6636 or seth.fowler@williamstrew.com.

 

May
17

DFW Area Price Alert – Home Price Increases Are Slowing

10 Markets Where Home Prices Aren't Rising

 

A new look at the prices sellers are asking for their homes is another sign of a shift in the North Texas housing market.  Dallas-Fort Worth made it onto a list of 10 major cities that are seeing declines or just tiny increases in the asking prices for houses up for sale.

Researchers at property market firm Trulia compared major home market to see where list prices for homes were rising and where they were falling. All four of Texas' major home markets made the ranks of places where home value increases are stalling.  That's obviously nowhere near the double-digit percentage annual home price gains North Texas recently saw.   Trulia estimates that the median price of homes up for sale in D-FW was $356,999 in March.  In March, homes listed for sale in North Texas traded for 98 percent of what they were listed for, according to local real estate data.  Trulia's report that D-FW sellers aren't jacking up their asking prices as quickly this year is another indication that the home market dynamic is changing in the area.

  • Dallas Morning News, May 8, 2018
May
16

Huge Job Growth Continues DFW Real Estate Boom

Top U.S. Gain MarketsThe D-FW area added more than 100,000 jobs in the year ended in March, according to preliminary figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. So far in 2018, D-FW has stayed near the top of the list of U.S. cities with the fastest-growing employment sectors. Job gains in North Texas have topped 100,000 a year for more than four years — an unprecedented economic boom. As long as companies keep bringing so many new jobs to the area, the real estate market will continue to thrive. Add to the jobs, the surge in population growth. Last year, D-FW grew by more than 146,000 people — more than any other major U.S. metro market. More than half of that population gain was from people moving to the area to fill all those newly created jobs.
- Dallas Morning News, May 4, 2018